Is It Time To Leave The Stock Market?

I wanted to write this post earlier this summer, but had a health incident and surgery last month. I'm doing well and finally getting back in the swing of things.

I realize a good number of folks have already asked this question and answered it in the affirmative. They saw two major crashes in 2000 and 2008... hated to look at their 401(k) statements month after month with no hope of improvement... and just couldn't stomach the volatility and uncertainty of the Wall Street Casino. There are still some stock market true believers who are staying in the game; probably from their loyalty to a brokerage firm, or believing the old myth that "nothing beats the market in the long run."

Long term buy-and-hold investing has been debunked since 2000. Nimble swing traders can still scalp short-term profits, but it's getting more difficult for amateurs to win on Wall Street. That's because a majority of the daily trading volume comes from computers - not from individual traders or fund managers. This High-Frequency Trading (mainly from the large investment banks and brokerage firms) has made stock trading the equivalent of a rigged carnival game, and not a free, fair or honest market.

The recent increase in stock market and real estate values was fueled by ultra-low interest rates, "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke debasing the currency even more, and probably intervention by the Federal Reserve, the federal government and/or the big investment banks. It's given unsuspecting Americans the illusion that the economy is coming back, and happy days are here again. But nothing could be further from the truth.

Government bailouts of the big banks never solved the causes of our financial problems, which were (and still are) excessive money-printing and credit creation - mixed with a lot of good stories and short-term speculation. This financial leverage kept the economic good times going, and helped avoid normal economic downturns. But just like an alcoholic who keeps drinking to avoid the hangover, eventually he will have to deal with it - just like the United States will have to deal with the biggest financial "hangover" in the history of the world.

And this hangover will affect US citizens and markets for many years to come. Hoping and waiting for the economy to "get better" so your stocks or mutual funds will come back is a bad investment strategy. If you haven't done so, sell your stocks, ETFs and mutual funds and convert a good portion of your cash into physical gold, silver, food and commodities you can barter with.

If you (or someone you know) can profitably and safely trade stocks, futures or other markets on a short-term basis, that's fine. As I said before, long-term "buy and hold" investing isn't a wise strategy. Economies, markets and currencies are more volatile than ever before - and I don't see that trend changing any time soon. Because of these reasons, it's time for average Americans to get their money out of the stock market.

My takes on the stock market, and what lies ahead...

Today's 512-point plunge in the Dow reminded me of the Crash of '08. We may see a "relief rally" on Friday of a few hundred points; however, if the news from Italy about possible bank runs and credit locking up is true... then look out below. I don't see a sideways market today... it'll probably be a 'rocket ride' up or down.

If we get the rally, Wall Street has dodged a short-term bullet for now... but there are many more financial and economic "bullets" to come. If it tanks lower, then Katie bar the door - this could get real ugly, real quick.

I implore any investor with 401(k) or IRA money in the stock market: If you don't know what you're invested in (or why), GET OUT OF THE STOCK MARKET - NOW. If you can't get out right away, wait to sell into the next rally and go 100% to cash.

Only the nimblest of traders can survive in this market, forget about 'buy and hold' investing that most financial planners and stock brokers recommend. Their job is to get you and keep you in the stock market - probably not what's best for you and your wealth.

Through all this panic and fear, I see two ETFs and an index that I like:

UNG - Natural Gas ETF, which hit a 52-week and 2-year low today. Nat Gas has a history of going dormant for a few years, then exploding higher like a volcano. This could take awhile to realize gains, but if you're patient enough (a few months to over a year), I like buying this ETF and longer-term call options at strike prices of 12.00 and 13.00.

SLV - Silver ETF that's directly tied to the NYMEX spot silver price. I'm not sure if the sell-off in silver is done, but as we see more panic and less trust in paper financial assets, more investors will put money in tangible assets, like gold and silver. I want to see Friday and Monday's trading action to make sure this short-term move is close to finished, before going long on SLV.

VIX - This is the volatility index, which popped 8 points today - or about 30%. The more fearful the market gets, the higher the VIX goes. If we get the relief rally on Friday, the VIX will come back down - which could give a great buying opportunity for the index or call options. But if the market tanks and the VIX goes higher, wait for the next pullback to get in.

You ain't seen nothin' yet, this stock market has a long ways down to go - possibly to the March 2009 lows of 6,500 on the Dow.

Pull up a chair and get your popcorn out - Friday's market action will be a heckuva show.

State Budgets, the VIX, and the Stock Market

On the surface, the stock market looks OK - going up slowly but surely, with the Dow closing in on the 12,000 mark. I'm a little wary because this week the Volatility Index (also known as the VIX), went up from 15.5 to 18.5 - about 20% from Tuesday through Friday.

There's an old saying when it comes to the VIX: "When it's high, you buy - when it's low, you go (sell)." It's been low and dormant for a long time, but it looks like it's waking from its slumber... and ready to go much higher.

I don't see ANY fundamentals holding the stock market up at current levels, other than High-Frequency Trading from investment banks and maybe some help from the Fed. State budgets around the country are bleeding red ink from deficits and debt - and in Illinois, their only remedy seems to be a financial transfusion of money from taxpayers.

When the New York Times runs a story about states looking to possibly file bankruptcy, the economy is not as rosy as economists like Brian Wesbury would have you believe.

Just like in 2007 when the Dow reached its peak of over 14,000, that didn't mean the economy was fundamentally sound. It was heavily laden with debt, and at the climax of the biggest misallocation of money in the history of the world. The biggest problem I have with Wesbury's hypothesis is that because Republicans have control of the House of Representatives, this will magically improve the economy.

I want to be optimistic about the overall American economy, but when I look at the mountains of debt at the federal, state, corporate and household levels, I seriously doubt we'll ever repay these obligations. Default is the more likely option for municipal bonds and defined-benefit pension plans. Until these debts are paid back or defaulted upon, we won't see Honest-to-Pete savings and investment for a very long time.

And I don't believe that enough Republicans in Washington (or most state capitols) have the gumption to make the necessary cuts. Almost all politicians care about what's best for them, and getting re-elected. If they make these needed cuts, they'll piss off a key campaign donor or special-interest group... and they can kiss their office goodbye. So they'll tinker around the edges, and find solutions that will try to "kick the can" down the road and further postpone the day of financial reckoning.

What does this all mean for the stock market? Unless the investment banks and powers that be can keep levitating the market at current levels, I believe it's headed for another leg down. State pension funds will sell the most liquid assets in their portfolio (probably stocks and mutual funds) to shore up deficits, and keep making payments in the short-term.

I do see opportunities for short-term traders who are nimble enough to get in and get out of the markets, and take their profits. And a few for long-term investors who know the right industries and companies to pick. But over that long-term horizon, we could see a roller-coaster ride of volatility that could shake you to your core.

If you still want to invest in the stock market, you need to have a high risk tolerance... strict money management rules in place... and stick to those rules consistently. Tray tables and seats in the locked and upright position, folks - it's gonna be an interesting ride.

Why Listen to Jim Cramer and CNBC?

Watch this video from Don Harrold, and you'll be asking this question...