The Prudent Ox Economics and Financial Blog

Common-sense thoughts on the US and global economies, gold, silver, commodities, interest rates, the Federal Reserve, foreign currencies, and government policy decisions that affect the markets.

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Location: Denver, Colorado, United States

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Client No. 9, Obama's Pastor, but no mention of Bear Stearns. Hmmm....

The news media had a field day Thursday and Friday talking about Eliot Spitzer's infidelities, and the preaching from Barack Obama's church. I think I heard the pastor's post-9/11 rantings at least 4 or 5 times.


But what I didn't hear that much about was more interesting: The financial problems with Bear Stearns, and the 45% haircut in the stock price. I realize the media and the American public can't get enough of a good, tawdry sex scandal. However, it was curious that we had to hear the fire-and-brimstone preachings of Pastor Jeremiah Wright over, and over... and over on all the talk radio stations in Denver.


This was probably done for two reasons:

1) The Establishment wants Hillary to win the Democratic nomination, so she can run roughshod over John McCain in November (If you believe he's got a shot of winning, I've got oceanfront property for sale in Iowa). They're a little disturbed that Obama is doing so well, and has a better-than-average chance of getting the nomination. This much ado about Obama's pastor is just a political football that's probably been saved up for just the right time. Is it an insight into his beliefs? Yes, but I'm not buying that it's the most important thing in this campaign since sliced bread.

I think most Americans (including yours truly) are tired of the "inside politics" back-and-forth, especially when we have a recession and a credit crisis still looming large over the American landscape. Not to mention increasing gas prices, and no real solutions being offered by either party in Washington. The second reason?

2) The government and Wall Street didn't want the Bear Stearns problems to be the center of attention, and cause further panic in the stock and other financial markets. I think Mish is right, and Bear Stearns is staring bankruptcy squre in the eye, and may cause a chain reaction of problems for other investment banks and brokers.

This just in: JP Morgan to Buy Bear for $2/Share.

I doubt it'll be enough to prevent an eventual collapse in Bear Stearn's stock price, but it's a stop-gap measure for now. When any stock loses almost half its value in a trading day, on over 15 times normal volume, that signals a larger decline ahead - barring divine or government intervention, that is.

Jim Rogers is right - go short on all financial firms, and long on commodities.

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